Pengaruh Inflasi, BI rate, Kurs, dan Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan periode 2020 - 2024

Abdullah, Zulfahmi (2026) Pengaruh Inflasi, BI rate, Kurs, dan Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan periode 2020 - 2024. Sarjana (S1) thesis, Universitas Islam 45.

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of inflation, the BI rate, the exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) for the 2020-2024 period. Twenty quarterly data observations from 2020-2024 were used as samples. Data analysis used multiple linear regression analysis with SPSS version 25 software. This research employed a quantitative associative approach. The results of the multiple linear regression hypothesis test using eViews yielded an F-test with a calculated F-value of 15.92825 with a significance level of 0.000028. These results indicate that the BI Rate, Exchange Rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variables simultaneously influence the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). The results of the partial multiple linear regression analysis (t-test) yielded a calculated t-value for the inflation variable of 0.476766 with a significance level of 0.6404. The t-value of the BI Rate variable is -0.484754 with a sig value of 0.6349. The t-value of the Exchange Rate variable is 2.134903 with a sig value of 0.0497 and the t-value of the Gross Domestic Product variable is 5.468331 with a sig value of 0.0001. These results indicate that the Inflation variable has a positive but insignificant effect, the BI Rate has a negative but insignificant effect, the Exchange Rate has a positive and significant effect, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a positive and significant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). This effect can be predicted by the multiple regression equation Y = -758.4178 + 34.80105 X1 - 75.69877 X2 + 464.7991 X3 + 155.3008 X4. For the coefficient of determination (KD) value = 75.8%, it means that inflation, BI rate, exchange rate and Gross Domestic Product on the Composite Stock Price Index together have an influence of 75.8% while the remaining 24.2% (100% - 75.8%) is influenced by other factors.

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